The GNPA and NNPA stood at 8.6 per cent and three per cent respectively as on March 31, 2020.
“The GNPA and NNPA are expected to fall to 6.9-7 per cent and 2.2-2.3 per cent by March 2022, which will continue to be a relief to the bottomline (profits) of the lenders,” the credit rating agency said. report good.
fresh NPA It said the generation rate (or slippage) remained high during the second wave in the absence of regulatory relief such as moratorium.
The gross fresh slippage during the April-June 2021 quarter was Rs 1 lakh crore (annual slippage rate of 4.1 per cent) as against Rs 2.5 lakh crore or 2.7 per cent during FY21.
The agency expects it to remain at Rs 0.7-0.8 lakh crore (2.8-3.2 per cent) during the second quarter of FY22, but moderate to 1.1- during the second half of this fiscal as the impact of the second quarter. 1.2 lakh crore (2-2.4 percent). The wave subsides.
Restructuring under the first of the total Rs 2 lakh crore restructured loan book for banks till June 30, 2021 coronavirus The wave is estimated to be 51 per cent of the total restructuring of Rs 1 lakh crore, while the restructuring under the second wave is estimated to be 31 per cent of the total restructuring or Rs 0.6 lakh crore.
The agency’s vice president (financial sector ratings) Anil Gupta said that given that most banks had 30-40 per cent of the loan book under moratorium during Q1 FY2020, loan restructuring at two per cent advances after the second wave is a positive. Surprise and far less than our earlier estimates.
“Despite the positive headline numbers, we continue to monitor asset quality, given the high level of overdue loan book and the performance of the restructured loan book,” Gupta said.
According to ICRA estimates, public sector banks (PSBs) may not require the capital budgeted by the government for FY 2022 even with increased capital requirements. However, it provides for any force majeure and will provide confidence to banks as well as investors and credit growth.
It said large private sector banks (PVBs) are also well capitalised, though some medium-sized PVBs may need to raise capital.
“We continue to maintain our credit growth forecast for banks at 7.3-8.3 per cent for FY22 as compared to 5.5 per cent for FY21,” Gupta said.
Return on equity for banks remained stable at 4.4-7.6 per cent for PSBs (5.1 per cent in FY21) and 9.5-9.9 per cent for PSBs, despite expectations of a reduction in gains on the bond portfolio due to expectations of rising bond yields in FY22. likely to live. The percentage for PVBs (10.5 per cent in FY21), said the report.